Bets

A catalogue of public bets that I’ve made with individual people about stuff (not including bets made on prediction markets).

On the 13th of June 2024, I bet $100 of my money against $350 of Eric Neyman’s that Trump will win the state of Virginia in the 2024 US Presidential election. If Joe Biden is not the Democratic candidate, or Donald Trump is not the Republican candidate, the bet is voided. This bet was voided upon Biden’s departure from the race.
On the 9th of June 2024, I bet $400 of my money against $100 of Tom Shlomi’s that no plausible contender for the best publicly available language model will be made by Google, as judged by Isabel Juniewicz on the 9th of June 2025. Winner: unknown.
On the 22nd of January 2024, I bet $300 of my money against $100 of Isaac King’s that Peter Miller would win his debate with Rootclaim on the origins of COVID, as determined by judge votes. If the judges are undecided, the bet is cancelled. Winner: me.
On the 28th of July 2023, I bet $100 of my money against $100 of Shreyas Kapur’s that Narendra Modi will be elected Prime Minister in the 2024 Indian general election. If a BJP member other than Modi is elected Prime Minister, or any other person is elected Prime Minister, then Shreyas wins. If no election occurs, or no PM is voted on, the bet is void. Winner: me.
On the 2nd of March 2022, I bet $100 of my money against $2,000 of Nuño Sempere’s that NATO will get involved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict by the end of 2022, perhaps by NATO troops being killed by Russia in Ukraine. It is a “gentleman’s agreement” where we will attempt to come to consensus between ourselves on the resolution in good faith. In the event of no agreement, we will each donate $100 to charity. Winner: Nuño Sempere.
On the 21st of February 2022, I bet $100 of my money against $100 of Elizabeth Garrett’s that there will be no “obesity vaccine” by the 21st of February 2042. An “obesity vaccine” is a vaccine (that is, something you’d call a vaccine, designed to prepare your immune system to defeat a pathogen, a nasal vaccine would count) that is designed and marketed to have the result of reducing the probability that the vaccinated person becomes obese by at least 3%. Ray Arnold will arbitrate in the case of a dispute. Winner: unknown.
On the 4th of November 2019, I bet $20 of my money against $20 of Duncan Sabien’s that the following will not happen: In the 2020 US Presidential election, either a majority of votes in the electoral college are cast for Donald Trump, or no candidate recieves a majority of votes in the electoral college, and the US House of Representatives subsequently votes for Donald Trump to be the US President. Winner: me.
On the 20th of April 2019, I bet $10 of my money against $90 of Robert Wiblin’s that Pete Buttigieg would be the Democratic nominee for the US presidency in 2020. Winner: Robert Wiblin.
On the 9th of September 2018, I bet $0.10 of my money against $10 of Duncan Sabien’s that there would be at least 3 separate incidents of US senators physically fighting other US senators in US senate buildings by the 1st of October 2023. Winner: Duncan Sabien.
On the 16th of January 2017, I bet $50 of my money against $100 of Topher Brennan’s that Donald Trump would win the 2020 US Presidential election. Winner: Topher Brennan.
On the 20th of October 2016, I bet $25 of my money against $5 of Max Kemeny’s that this map, showing Clinton winning all swing states including AZ but not GA or UT and Trump winning the rest, would not be the outcome of the 2016 US presidential election. Winner: me.
On the 8th of August 2016, I bet $100 of my money against $100 of Bryan Caplan’s that Gary Johnson would receive greater than 5% of the popular vote in the 2016 US presidential election. Winner: Bryan Caplan.
On the 24th of June 2016, I bet $200 of my money against $50 of Scott Fowler’s that Donald Trump would not lead Hillary Clinton by more than 6 percentage points in the popular vote in the 2016 US presidential election. Winner: me.
On the 14th of March 2016 (after the fourth game AlphaGo played against Lee Sedol), I bet $50 of my money against $50 of Kevin Le’s that AlphaGo would win its final game against Lee Sedol. Winner: me.
On the 9th of March 2016 (after the first game AlphaGo played against Lee Sedol), I bet $100 of my money against $150 of Andrew Kirk’s that AlphaGo would win all games in its match against Lee Sedol. Winner: Andrew Kirk.
On the 9th of February 2016, I bet $100 of my money against $67 of Eliezer Yudkowsky’s that AlphaGo would win its match against Lee Sedol. Winner: me.